Nigeria’s mid-year greenhouse gas emissions report for 2025 highlights a complex climate reality, rising industrial emissions alongside encouraging early signs of change in the transport and energy sectors.
The findings, compiled by the Nigerian Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) and supported by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), underscore the balancing act between rapid economic growth and urgent climate commitments.
Industrial CO2 emissions increased by approximately three per cent in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. This rise is driven primarily by extensive diesel generator use and expanding manufacturing output. Diesel generators remain a common power source in Nigeria due to persistent electricity grid unreliability.
According to the latest report, diesel generators contribute a significant portion of Nigeria’s carbon emissions, estimated at nearly 40 per cent of the nation’s total CO2 output, making them a major climate hurdle.
The government recognises this challenge and is pushing a transition to cleaner energy sources. Vice President Kashim Shettima recently announced plans for Nigeria to phase out diesel dependency through an integrated hybrid energy approach combining renewables and natural gas, targeting significant emissions reduction and improved energy access.
In a positive development, transport-related emissions showed a modest decline for the first time. Lagos and Abuja are leading a transition toward cleaner fuels and electric vehicles, driven by targeted government incentives.
The Lagos Clean Transport Initiative and Abuja Green Fleet Pilot Program have increased registrations of compressed natural gas (CNG) buses and EV taxis, lowering urban air pollution and fossil fuel consumption. Experts point out that Nigeria’s ambitious goal to make all new car sales zero-emission by 2040 is achievable if this momentum continues, aligning with the Net-Zero by 2060 roadmap.
The report also highlights a seven per cent drop in urban diesel generator use compared to 2024, thanks to expanded solar mini-grid deployment in underserved communities. In July 2025, 15 new solar mini-grids were commissioned in Niger, Kogi, and Nasarawa states, powering over 30,000 people with 1.4 MW of clean energy. These projects, funded through a $60 million public-private partnership, are providing affordable, reliable power, enabling local businesses and reducing reliance on polluting generators.
Such decentralised energy solutions are crucial for Nigeria, where approximately 40 per cent of the population currently lacks access to the central grid. The mini-grid expansion supports Sustainable Development Goal 7 by improving energy equity and reducing carbon emissions.
Despite progress in energy and transport, methane emissions, primarily from oil and gas flaring in the Niger Delta, remain a significant climate concern. Methane, over 80 times more potent than CO2 in trapping heat over 20 years, substantially accelerates warming. Nigeria is one of the world’s largest methane emitters due to flaring, venting, and leaks from ageing infrastructure and regulatory gaps.
The Nigeria Methane Emissions Reduction Pilot Programme (NiMERP), launched with UN Environment Programme support, aims to improve methane monitoring and inform mitigation strategies. While some voluntary reductions in flaring have been achieved, more stringent enforcement and infrastructure upgrades are urgently needed to meet Nigeria’s methane reduction target of 30% by 2030 under the national climate commitments. Environmental specialists acknowledge the steady but uneven progress.
Dr. Ifeoma Ajayi of the Nigerian Climate Research Institute said, “The decline in transport emissions and expanded solar access are promising. However, industrial reliance on diesel generators and unchecked methane emissions risk undermining Nigeria’s climate goals.”
She explained that improving grid efficiency, further investing in renewables, and enforcing gas flaring regulations are critical to turning 2025 into a breakthrough year for Nigeria’s climate action.
Nigeria’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) target an unconditional 20 per cent and conditional 47 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, a challenging but achievable ambition requiring whole-of-society effort.
The government’s Energy Transition Plan and Climate Change Act provide a robust policy framework, particularly encouraging private sector participation in clean energy and low-carbon transport.
The mid-year emissions report confirms the pivotal role of sustainable infrastructure investment, regulatory rigour, and technological innovation in forging Nigeria’s sustainable development path.
