Nigeria finds itself at a pivotal point in 2025, navigating a complex path between economic aspirations and its global climate commitments.
The first half of the year has been a mixed bag, with encouraging signs of progress in some sectors overshadowed by persistent challenges in others.
While the nation’s overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, a new wave of policy reforms and private-sector initiatives suggests that a true turning point may be on the horizon.
The country’s overall climate action is rated as “Almost sufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker, a rating that acknowledges progress but signals that more is needed.
Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), a key commitment under the Paris Agreement, aims for an unconditional 20% reduction in emissions below business-as-usual by 2030, and a 47% reduction conditional on international support.
Achieving these targets requires significant action, especially in the most polluting sectors.
Despite government pledges and programs, gas flaring remains a significant and stubborn issue. According to a World Bank report, Nigeria recorded a 12% increase in gas flaring in 2024, the second-highest global rise.
This surge occurred even as oil production grew by only 3%, leading to an 8% increase in flare intensity.
The report attributes this surge to the divestment of onshore assets by international oil companies and a lack of technical expertise or funding among new, indigenous operators.
Flaring at facilities run by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and smaller companies accounted for a staggering 60% of Nigeria’s total flaring and 75% of the annual increase.
This practice is not only an enormous waste of a valuable energy resource but also a major source of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The government’s Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) has awarded contracts to companies to address over 40 flare sites, but enforcement and funding remain critical hurdles.
On a brighter note, Nigeria is making strides in its energy and transportation sectors. The country’s updated National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP) has introduced tax breaks for solar equipment, making clean energy more accessible.
The share of renewables in Nigeria’s energy mix has risen to 16% in 2025, up from 13% in 2023. This is largely driven by a boom in off-grid solar mini-grids, which have helped reduce the reliance on diesel generators, particularly in urban areas. The use of diesel generators has dropped by 7% compared to 2024.
Similarly, the transition to cleaner transportation is gaining momentum. The government’s push for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and electric vehicles in major cities like Lagos and Abuja, supported by incentives and grants for new refuelling infrastructure, is beginning to pay off.
For the first time, emissions from the road transport sector have begun to decline slightly, signalling that targeted policies can be effective.
While federal policies set the tone, the fight against emissions is often won or lost at the local level. Lagos State, a major economic hub, has launched several key initiatives to improve waste management and promote sustainability, which directly contribute to the national emissions strategy.
Methane from landfills is a major contributor to Nigeria’s GHG emissions. The Lagos State Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) is spearheading a comprehensive waste management strategy that includes waste reduction, recycling, and energy recovery.
The agency has partnered with private sector companies to improve services and promote a “waste-to-wealth” initiative, which aims to generate revenue from waste management activities. LAWMA has also implemented public awareness campaigns, such as its “Know Your PSP” initiative and efforts to tackle marine waste, encouraging residents to adopt more sustainable practices.
By promoting recycling and proper disposal, these initiatives help to capture methane from waste and prevent it from entering the atmosphere, a crucial step in the country’s climate action plan.
Nigeria’s 2025 emissions status is a story of contrasts. While significant progress has been made in diversifying the energy mix and promoting cleaner transportation, the challenge of gas flaring remains a pressing concern.
The nation’s ability to meet its ambitious climate goals hinges on its capacity to enforce regulations, attract massive investment in both renewable energy infrastructure and gas capture technology, and scale up successful local initiatives to a national level.
The coming months will be decisive in determining whether Nigeria’s current momentum can be sustained and accelerated, transforming its climate efforts from a mixed bag into a resounding success story.
