Climate-driven productivity losses surpassing three to five per cent of GDP across East Africa now require integrating climate and natural capital variables into national macroeconomic systems.
This requirement shaped the deliberations at the First African Symposium on Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) and Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling, held from February 12–13, 2026, at Makerere University.
The African Green Economy and Sustainability Institute’s Executive Director, Dr Eugene Itua, participated directly in the proceedings, reinforcing AGESI’s continental mandate to build African institutions capable of managing climate-economic risks with accuracy and authority.
Delegations from Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Malawi, Zambia, and Sierra Leone presented hydrological stress indicators, climate-adjusted debt trajectories, and ecosystemservice valuations.
These datasets served as the analytical foundation for the event and aligned with AGESI’s mission to institutionalise climate-sensitive macroeconomic governance across Africa.
The World Bank Keynote address by Paul Jonathan Martin established that natural capital constitutes a macrofiscal asset rather than an environmental externality.
His framing requires African fiscal authorities to integrate ecosystem service values into national accounts to avoid structurally underestimating sovereign risk. This position reinforces AGESI’s strategic objective of embedding natural capital valuation into Africa’s economic architecture.
Climate-adjusted CGE and DSGE models presented by Prof. Edward Bbaale, Dr Albert Musisi, and Dr Chris Mukiza demonstrated how climate shocks alter GDP baselines, revenue projections, and debt sustainability. Their work enforces the principle that climate-sensitive modelling is now a prerequisite for credible fiscal planning.
AGESI’s executive director engaged directly with these modelling teams to explore pathways for regional replication. As a concrete next step, AGESI plans to initiate a pilot project in Uganda using these models to refine their application in local contexts.
This initiative aims to establish a framework adaptable for implementation in other countries, thereby converting enthusiasm into sustained momentum for regional replication.
Kenyan and Ethiopian researchers presented evidence linking rainfall variability to declines in sectoral output and to increased stress on urban infrastructure. The results require ministries of finance to adopt hydrologically continuous planning frameworks which reflect Africa’s
ecological realities. AGESI’s presence ensured that these understandings feed into its continental training and research agenda.
Zambia, Malawi, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria provided case studies on NCA integration, revealing that ecosystem degradation imposes substantial financial liabilities on national budgets. These cases strengthen AGESI’s argument that naturalcapital accounting must transition from pilot projects to core national statistical functions.
Denmark’s GreenREFORM model, LSE’s climate DSA architecture, and AFD’s macro-climate modelling tools were presented as adaptable frameworks—not templates—to support African-led modelling systems. AGESI’s Executive Director collaborated with these partners to investigate collaborative pathways for African-specific modelling innovations.
AGESI’s mission, as articulated on its website, aims to create African institutions capable of designing, interpreting, and operationalising climate-sensitive macroeconomic tools.
The symposium’s outcomes reinforce this mandate in four decisive ways.
Institutional conformity with AGESI’s continental agenda. The event validated AGESI’s position that Africa requires homegrown modelling capacity to accurately quantify climate-economic risks and the contributions of natural capital. Itua’s participation ensured AGESI’s leadership function in shaping this agenda.
Strengthening AGESI’s technical partnerships. The presence of ministries of finance, national statistical offices, and global modelling institutions constitutes a network AGESI can mobilise to scale training, research, and advisory programs.
Delivering a platform for AGESI’s capacity building mandate. The symposium highlighted a critical skills gap: Africa lacks sufficient climate-economic modellers and policy interpreters. AGESI is positioned to fill this gap via targeted training pipelines and technical support.
Reinforcing AGESI’s role in green macroeconomic governance. The discussions mandate that climate-sensitive approaches be embedded into debt sustainability analysis, public investment management, tax and subsidy reforms and national budgeting systems.
These functions align directly with AGESI’s strategic pillars.
Strategic significance for Africa
Climate-induced losses, ecosystem degradation, and depletion of natural capital now constitute material financial risks to African economies. The symposium’s adherence to the Helsinki Principles positions African institutions as leaders in Green Macroeconomics, where environmental health is treated as a core economic variable.
This shift enforces four operational truths, including that natural capital must be measured as national wealth, climate risk must be embedded in fiscal frameworks, adaptation is an investment, not a cost and biodiversity loss imposes macrofiscal liabilities.
AGESI will operationalise the symposium’s outcomes through the establishment of a continental modelling and training hub, the development of African-led climate-economic modelling frameworks, technical support to ministries of finance and national statistical offices, research programs aligned with PAFCA and CEACM, and capacity-building pipelines for climate-sensitive macroeconomic governance.
These actions constitute AGESI’s pledge to build a climate-aligned, nature-positive, economically resilient Africa.
