The UNFCCC released its NDC Synthesis Report on Tuesday, reviewing climate action plans from 64 countries that collectively cover approximately 30% of global emissions.
The report aggregates submitted plans and their projected emissions reductions, finding that current pledges would reduce emissions by approximately 17% from their 2019 levels, which is far short of what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. The analysis reflects submissions received up until September 30, 2025.
Countries representing 64% of global emissions still have not formally submitted new NDCs and are not included in this analysis.
As the world prepares for the pivotal COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, Melanie Robinson, Global Climate, Economics and Finance Program Director at the World Resources Institute (WRI), has issued a stark warning about the widening gap between national climate pledges and the action needed to safeguard the planet.
In a statement responding to the latest UN climate analysis, Robinson described the findings as “a frightening gap between what governments have promised and what is needed to protect people and planet.” While acknowledging that the transition to a low-carbon economy is underway, she reiterated that the pace must accelerate dramatically.
“Countries need to shift from a jog to an all-out sprint,” she said.
The UN report shows that if current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, global emissions could peak by 2030 and fall by 6% by 2035 compared to previous 2030 targets. However, Robinson cautioned that this progress is not enough to avoid breaching the Paris Agreement’s critical 1.5°C threshold.
She also noted that the report is incomplete, as countries responsible for nearly two-thirds of global emissions either missed the September submission deadline or have yet to update their climate plans. “Those still on the hook to submit must deliver ambitious climate targets if they want to stay competitive, attract investment and benefit their workforce,” Robinson urged.
Despite the sobering outlook, the report highlights areas of momentum. Robinson pointed to growing efforts in renewable energy expansion, transport decarbonization, and the integration of adaptation and just transition strategies. These developments, she said, offer scalable models for both national and local governments.
Calling for decisive leadership, Robinson concluded, “Leaders should treat this report not as a warning but as a rallying cry. COP30 must deliver a practical plan to accelerate action this decade—because every fraction of a degree avoided means lives saved, more abundant food and water, better livelihoods, and stronger economies.”
